Two leading religious persecution watchdogs have given the best insight yet into what is really happening in Nigeria.
They confirmed that far more Christians than Muslims were killed in terror attacks across Africa’s most populous nation from October 2019 to September 2025.
The International Institute for Religious Freedom (IIRF) and the Observatory of Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) verified that Islamic extremist Fulani herdsmen were responsible for most (53%) of the killings.
Their report concluded that of the 42,000 civilians killed during the surveyed period, 54% were Christians and 25% were Muslims.
NIgeria’s 220 million people are almost evenly divided with a Muslim majority in the north and a Christian majority in the south — with slightly more Muslims overall.
NIGERIA ACCUSED OF COVERING UP INVOLVEMENT OF ISLAMIC FULANI MILITANTS
The persecution watchdogs discovered that the designated terrorist groups targeted by the Nigerian and US governments such as Boko Haram, were responsible for just 12% of the killings.
Their report accused the Nigerian government of covering up the widespread Fulani involvement.
“Official communications routinely substitute “bandits” and “unknown gunmen” for identifiable Fulani militia affiliates,” it asserts.
“This misnaming is not merely imprecise. It actively obstructs investigation, disarmament and prosecution.”
“THE EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SIMPLE WAR ON CHRISTIANS NARRATIVE”
In the past six months, a joint US-Nigerian operation has targeted Islamic terror groups in the north of Nigeria.
“The Trump administration has framed these operations as part of a broader campaign to protect Nigeria’s Christians – a framing the Nigerian government has been careful to distance itself from,” IIRF/ORFA stated.
“The evidence does not support a simple ‘war on Christians’ framing.”
“But it does establish a consistent, measurable pattern of religious targeting – one that simply cannot be explained by climate or resource competition alone.”
“FULANI MILITANTS STRIKE WHERE THE STATE IS NOT ENGAGED”
“The far larger driver of lethal violence against civilians is a Fulani militia network operating primarily in north-central Nigeria, where the military is largely absent and where no international strikes are being conducted,” the watchdogs noted.
“Civilians die where the state is not engaged,” they observed.
“There is almost no overlap between the 10 local government areas with the highest civilian death tolls and those where Nigerian security forces are actively deployed.”
“The report’s findings undercut distorted claims on opposing sides of how violence in Nigeria is viewed,” the authors wrote.
HOW OPPOSING SIDES VIEW THE VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA
“On one side is the ‘genocide’ framing, built on aggregate death tolls that circulate widely, but lack transparent sourcing or incident-level verification,” they stated.
“On the other side is reactive dismissal”
“Having debunked inflated numbers, mainstream media outlets and parts of the humanitarian community conclude that religious targeting is not a meaningful factor at all.”
“That argument recasts the violence as a resource conflict driven by climate and competition over land.”
“The IIRF/ORFA data cuts through both distortions.”
“CHRISTIANS ARE KILLED AT 4.4 TIMES THE RATE THEIR POPULATION WOULD PREDICT”
“When the cases of undetermined religious affiliation are distributed proportionally and adjusted for the religious composition of each affected state, one concludes that Christians were killed at 4.4 times the rate their population share would predict,” the report states.
They were 3.2 times more likely than other groups to be abducted.
Hausa Muslims in the North West zone were also abducted and killed in large numbers by the same perpetrator groups.
The report was based on primary records from a local partner network with Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), verified and enriched with religious-identity attribution through on-the-ground confirmation, and incidents were cross-checked to avoid double counting, the authors stated.
COMMANDERS OF FULANI MILITIA ARE ALMOST NEVER PROSECUTED
ORFA documented systemic breaches of duties on the part of the Nigerian government, including impunity for the Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM).
“Despite being responsible for more than half of Christian civilian killings and nearly half of all civilian killings, commanders of Fulani militia are almost never identified, arrested or prosecuted,” the report stated.
“The attention given to Boko Haram and ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), while justified, is not matched by comparable action against FEM.”
The government employs “data architecture that erases the religious dimension,” IIRF/ORFA stated.
WHAT THE WATCHDOGS RECOMMENDED
The watchdogs recommended the Nigerian government acknowledge publicly that violence in Nigeria has both resource and religious dimensions, and that FEM, distinct from Boko Haram and ISWAP, is a principal driver.
It suggested designating FEM-affiliated armed groups accordingly.
Also recommended was respect for Freedom of Religion or Belief (FoRB) to the level in national discourse, and structural reform, including outlawing religious hate speech in the Criminal and Penal Codes and anchoring FoRB protections in the Constitution.
The report also called for credible, independent investigations of mass community attacks and the prosecution of militia commanders.
The report has been submitted to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Religion or Belief.
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